(•‿-) The key figures for this share are too good to be true, but they are true!

I recently purchased/increased the following shares in my wikifolios , or with FollowMyMoney and/or my private accounts:

CENTROTHERM, $CNTK, ISIN #DE000A1TNMM9

https://www.centrotherm.de/de/investor-relations

Company presentation

CENTROTHERM INTERNATIONAL (in the following "Centrotherm") is a German company specializing in the development and production of process technologies and systems for the semiconductor, photovoltaic and microelectronic industries. The core business comprises thermal process solutions, such as furnaces and coating systems, which are used in the manufacture of solar cells, semiconductor components and other high-tech products. Centrotherm positions itself as a supplier to high-growth industries and attaches great importance to tailor-made solutions and research and development (R&D) in order to remain technologically competitive.

Sources of income:

The main sources of income come from the sale of production equipment, spare parts and services (maintenance, upgrades). In addition, the company generates revenue through license and engineering services. The focus lies on long-term customer relationships with major players in the Photovoltaic and Semiconductor industry, especially in Asia, Europe and North America.

Growth prospects:

The growth prospects are closely linked to global megatrends such as the energy transition (photovoltaics) and digitalization (semiconductors). The boom in renewable energies and the rising demand for chips for AI, electromobility and 5G offer Centrotherm opportunities. However, growth depends on the ability to compete in a cyclical and competitive market and on the global willingness to invest in these sectors.

Products:

· Thermal process equipment (e.g. diffusion furnaces, PECVD systems for solar cell production).

· Coating technologies (e.g. for silicon wafers).

· Customer-specific solutions for the semiconductor industry.

Target markets:

· Photovoltaics: Manufacturer of solar cells and modules, mainly in China, which dominates the world market.

· Semiconductors: Chip manufacturers and suppliers in Asia (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea), Europe and the USA.

· Microelectronics: Niche markets such as sensors and power electronics.

Employees:

Centrotherm employs approx. 650 Mitarbeiter, mainly in Germany at the headquarters in Blaubeuren. The high proportion of engineers and R&D personnel underlines the company's technology-driven approach.

Competitive environment

Centrotherm is a medium-sized player in a high-tech niche. Compared to global giants such as Applied Materials or ASML, the market position is significantly smaller, but the company has established itself as a specialist for thermic processes, especially in photovoltaics. It benefits from its flexibility and customer proximity, which sets it apart from larger, standardized providers.

Market size:

The global market for photovoltaic equipment is estimated to be worth approximately USD 10-15 billion (2025), with strong growth due to the energy transition.

The Semiconductor plant market lies at over 100 billion. USD and continues to grow due to chip demand. Centrotherm only serves a small, specialised sub-market here.

USP (Unique Selling Proposition):

· Flexibility and customer-specific solutions.

· Long experience in thermal processes.

· Strong presence in the Asian Photovoltaic market, especially in China.

Advantages:

· Technological Expertise and adaptability.

· Focus on growth industries.

· Relatively small size allows for quick decisions

Disadvantages:

· Dependency on few major customers (e.g. in China).

· High competitive pressure from larger players with more capital.

· Cyclical nature of the target markets.

Risk

· Market cyclicality: Fluctuations in the Photovoltaic and Semiconductor industry can have a strong influence on sales and profits.

· Custom Dependency: A decline in orders from China would be a massive risk.

· Competition: Price pressure and technological superiority of larger competitors.

· Geopolitics: Trade conflicts or sanctions could disrupt supply chains.

Skin in the Game

90% of the shares are owned by Solarpark Blautal GmbH. Behind this is Mr. Robert Michael Hartung, who also heads the Supervisory Board. The Free Float is only 10%. The daily trading volume is correspondingly low!

Fundamental valuation of the stock

Turnover has fluctuated between EUR 100 and 185 million in recent years, see graph . Since 2021, a net profit has been generated.

On 11.3.2025, the preliminary figures for 2024 were announced, see news – GERMAN - https://www.eqs-news.com/de/news/corporate/centrotherm-konzern-uebertrifft-nach-vorlaeufigen-zahlen-durch-eine-verdopplung -des-ebitda-auf-rund-39-mio-eur-seine-ergebnisprognose-fuer-das-geschaeftsjahr-2024/44a08400-5f99-4f78-9d48-9f7d450b7707_de

Here are the highlights from the report:

· According to preliminary figures, Centrotherm exceeds its earnings forecast by doubling EBITDA to around EUR 39 million

· Significant expansion of the equity base by over 25 Mio. EUR

· Liquidity doubled to around EUR 96 million

· Group sales increased by more than 50% to around EUR 240 million

· Total consolidated revenues of over EUR 290 million at the upper end of the forecast

· Consolidated net income for the year is expected to exceed EUR 25 million

· Centrotherm Group's order book very well filled at around EUR 458 million as at 31 December 2024

For 2024, this results in a P/E ratio of 2.69 and consolidated equity of approx. EUR 110 million. The EV/EBIDTA ratio is -0.65.

These are values that you rarely see and can hardly believe!

The Chart

After the report, the price has risen 15%, to about 3.8 €, see graph. The last peak is around €7 from July 2023. Since then, the key figures have improved considerably.

Why does this opportunity exist?

Centrotherm is a typical U -Share:

· Unknown

· Unpopular

· Undervalued.

With a market capitalization of approx. 82 million EURO and the low free float of only 10%, the share is relatively unknown. As far as I know, there are currently no discussions on X/Twitter and no analysts to promote the stock.

Catalysts

On 30.4.2025, the Annual Report for 2024 was published. Now investors have the numbers in black and white.

The most important point for the future are possible statements about what should happen to the high equity. Possible would be:

1) Paying out high dividends:

Advantage: An attractive dividend payment could reward existing shareholders and make the company more interesting for investors.

Disadvantage: It reduces the Liquidity and the Eigenkapital, which could limit the financial flexibility for future investments or crises.

Consideration: A moderate dividend could be sensible to maintain a balance between shareholder interests and corporate stability.

2) Share buyback:

Advantage: Through the buyback of stock, the share price could be supported, so that the number of shares in circulation decreases and the gain in stocks increases. In addition, it signals confidence in the company's success.

Disadvantage: It ties up capital that could be used for growth initiatives or debt repayment.

Consideration: A buyback program would be sensible if Centrotherm believes that the stock is currently undervalued.

3) Delisting with offer to shareholders:

With an offer of 10€ per share (price potential +150%), the costs would only be about 21 million euros!

Advantage: A withdrawal from the stock market could save costs for compliance and report obligations and increase strategic freedom, especially if management wants to pursue long-term plans without pressure on quarterly figures.

Disadvantage: It requires a fair takeover offer to the shareholders, which could consume a confered part of the equity. In addition, it could damage the image and make it difficult to access the capital markets.

Consideration: This option would only be attractive if Centrotherm plans to focus more firmly on internal projects or restructuring.

4) Company acquisition (M&A):

Advantage: With EUR 110 million, Centrotherm could raise a smaller company to create synergies, enter new markets or buy the portfolio (e.g. in the areas of renewable energies or semi-bitter technology, if appropriate).

Disadvantage: Acquisitions are risky and could fail if the integration does not succeed or the target company is overvalued.

Consideration: An acquisition would be sensitive if it strategically fits the core competence and promises long-term growth.

5) Investments in the own business:

Advantage: The capital could flow into research and development, modernization of plants or the expansion of production capacities, which could strengthen the competitive position.

Disadvantage: Such investments tie up capital in the long term and involve uncertainties about the return.

Consideration: This would be an option if Centrotherm sees growth opportunities in its existing markets, e.g. in the photovoltaic or semi-bitter industry.

Conclusion:

The best option depends on the current situation and Centrotherm's goals. A balanced approach – such as a combination of a moderate dividend payout, targeted investments and a small share buyback – could take into account the interests of shareholders and companies alike.

My price target for the next 3 years is €15.6 (+303%). Current price €3.86.

My basic idea when investing is to buy a stock cheaper than it is actually worth. I work with a "fair P/E ratio" (P/E ratio - price-earnings ratio), which is supposed to reflect the fair value of a stock. If a fair P/E ratio of 15 is calculated for a company and is currently trading on the stock exchange for a P/E ratio of 10, then it would be a cheap buy. The bigger the gap between fair and current P/E ratios, the cheaper I am in purchasing! From this "gap" I calculate the potential for future price gains, because sooner and unfortunately sometimes later, the stock market recognizes the "fair P/E ratio".

According to my calculations, the "fair P/E ratio" here is 15.3.

My investment style is a mixture of value/momentum investor. Based on the fundamental data (VALUE) and the price development of the last 52 weeks (MOMENTUM), the stock is currently one of my TOP 25 stocks. These are the stocks where I see the highest chances of strong price gains in the medium term (1-3 years). I also buy these values in my wikifolios , or/and at FollowMyMoney .

What do you think about the stock?

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"Speculative investments are like a tennis match: the decisive factor is to concentrate fully on the next ace instead of being annoyed by the last double fault." A. Gerstenberger

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Disclaimer

This text was partially created with KI Anwendungen .

All content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or financial market instruments. Of course, I try to present the facts to the best of my knowledge, but they can still be completely or forever wrong.

Therefore, I assume no liability for investment decisions that you make on the basis of the information presented here.

Conflict of interest: The author of this publication holds shares/securities of the securities/companies discussed here and intends to sell them depending on the market situation and could benefit in particular from increased trading liquidity. This creates a concrete and inherent conflict of interest.