(•‿-) Microcap with potential: the digital infrastructure profiteer on the verge of a turnaround
I recently bought/increased the following shares in my wikifolios, at FollowMyMoney and/or my private accounts:
aconnic, $CFC, ISIN #DE000A0LBKW6
https://www.aconnic.com/investor-relations/
The company
aconnic AG is an international technology and network supplier based in Munich, Germany. aconnic AG enables the construction and operation of high-performance Gigabit networks with the key elements of energy efficiency, sustainability and network security, as well as technologies and products for carbon dioxide storage to achieve climate neutrality with carbon capture, and bioenergetic and thus climate-neutral fuels. Systems and services are used by customers such as Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telecom Italia, A1 Telekom Austria and América Móvil. aconnic AG is the only international system supplier for critical communication infrastructure with European research, development, production and supply chain as well as headquarters in Germany and contributes to Europe's technological autonomy.
Fundamental valuation of the share
Key figures for 2025 (own calculations):
P/E (price/earnings) < 13;
EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/EBITDA) < 6;
Aconnic is a turnaround speculation, as it has made losses in recent years. The company's financing was not always secure. Communication with investors was rather rudimentary. There are certainly risks here, but a lot of news points to significantly better times ahead.
Skin in the Game. Management Participation
The shareholder structure (as of June 30, 2024) is as follows:
The CEO of the company, Mr. Werner Neubauer, is behind FIGLIO BETEILIGUNGSVERWALTUNG GMBH, and he has been instrumental in driving the turnaround. Insiders hold a large portion of the shares, which is an absolute plus for me. Blackstone is a major shareholder with a stake of around 21.55%. Shares were taken over from Palace Park Investments Ltd. I have no information about the background. The free float is only around 30%.
On March 6, 2025, a planned capital increase and placement of a convertible bond with a total volume of EUR 18 million was announced.
“aconnic AG (ISIN: DE000A0LBKW6), Munich, plans to place a cash capital increase with a volume of EUR 9 million and to issue a convertible bond with a volume of EUR 9 million to strengthen its equity and reduce its debt.
For the planned capital measure, the equity is to be increased by around 7 million shares. The placement of the shares is planned at a subscription price of EUR 1.30 per share.
The convertible bond issued for subscription has a volume of EUR 9 million and a term of seven years. The unsecured and subordinated bond has an annual interest rate of 9.0 percent. The convertible bond can be converted into newly issued shares at a price of EUR 1.30 per share throughout its entire term.
Aconnic AG has signed a corresponding preliminary agreement with investors to place the capital increase and the convertible bond."
The subscription price of EUR 1.30 is interesting, given that the share price on the day of the announcement was EUR 0.90. The investors with the preliminary agreement are willing to pay a 44% premium to the share price.
Why does this opportunity exist?
Aconnic is a typical U-stock:
· Unknown
· Unpopular
· Undervalued.
With a market capitalization of about 15 million, the stock is relatively unknown. As far as I know, there are currently no discussions on X/Twitter and no analysts following the stock.
What else is important - The German Super Wumms
After the election in Germany, the parties are planning a special infrastructure fund of 500 billion euros. The infrastructure fund is a special financial instrument used in Germany to finance infrastructure investments. It is an additional budget, separate from the regular budget, that is used primarily for larger projects in the areas of transportation, digitalization, energy supply, and other public infrastructure measures.
Aconnic would be a major beneficiary of spending on digital infrastructure for the following reasons:
1. Direct demand for network hardware for fiber optic and broadband networks
Germany is investing heavily in fiber optic expansion – fiber optic networks are to be available nationwide by 2030. aconnic delivers:
• Network components for access networks (connection from the backbone to households/companies)
• CPE (Customer Premises Equipment), i.e. end devices at the customer's premises
• Radio relay solutions for connecting areas that are difficult to access (e.g. rural areas)
Since aconnic specializes in municipal utilities, municipal operators and regional carriers, the funding for fiber optic projects directly reaches aconnic's target group. These operators need hardware and system integration – and that is exactly what aconnic offers.
2. System integration for smaller network operators and municipal utilities
Many of the funded broadband expansion projects are for smaller operators and municipal utilities, not just for the big telecommunications companies like Deutsche Telekom or Vodafone. These smaller operators often have little in-house network technology expertise – they need complete solutions including:
• Network planning
• Hardware delivery
• Integration of hardware into the overall network
• Maintenance and operation
aconnic offers precisely these “end-to-end solutions”, which makes the company a predestined partner for subsidized fiber-optic projects.
3. Synchronization solutions and timing technology for 5G/6G
aconnic also offers solutions for network synchronization – this is particularly relevant for:
• Mobile networks (5G/6G), because exact time synchronization in the network nodes is crucial here.
Critical infrastructure (energy grids, communication between authorities), where precise synchronization is also a requirement.
Every 5G radio network needs robust synchronization – that is a requirement. The more Germany invests in 5G/6G, the higher the demand for this technology. And here, too, aconnic has niche expertise.
4. Local production & European data sovereignty
In funding programs (e.g. the German government's Gigabit Strategy or the EU Gigabit Act), it often plays a role that the funded technology comes from Europe. This is intended to reduce dependence on Asian providers such as Huawei or ZTE.
aconnic develops and produces in Germany.
This makes aconnic eligible for funding under programs that favor European value creation.
5. Sustainability and energy efficiency as an advantage
Many funding programs (especially in Germany) require energy-efficient solutions. Fiber optic networks are inherently more energy efficient than copper networks, but there is also efficiency potential within the fiber optic network in the active network components.
aconnic develops particularly energy-efficient network hardware (low-power design).
This is increasingly being taken into account when awarding funding – a real advantage for aconnic.
6. Smart Grids & Industry 4.0 – further infrastructure trends
Digital infrastructure not only includes fibre optics and 5G, but also the digitization of energy networks (smart grids) and the development of industry 4.0 networks in production.
aconnic has solutions for industrial networks (factory networks, IoT coupling, sensor networking).
Municipal utilities that expand fiber optics often also expand smart metering and smart grids at the same time – this offers cross-selling potential for aconnic.
In summary: the chain of profits
Public money flows → municipal utilities/municipalities receive funding → these award contracts → aconnic delivers the technology and integration
aconnic is right in the “sweet spot” between funding, fiber-optic expansion and industrial digitization.
What are possible catalysts for the share price to take off?
A potential share price driver could be the publication of the next results. Positive business developments or new major orders could also influence the share price.
My target price for the next 2 years is €2.2 (+123%).
Current price €1.0.
My basic idea when investing is to buy a share cheaper than it is actually worth. I work with a “fair P/E ratio” - (P/E ratio - price-earnings ratio), which should reflect the fair value of a share. If a fair P/E ratio of 15 is calculated for a company and it is currently trading on the stock exchange at a P/E ratio of 10, then it would be a bargain purchase. The bigger the gap between fair and current P/E ratio, the cheaper I am buying! From this “gap” I calculate the potential for future price gains, because sooner and unfortunately sometimes later, the stock market recognizes the “fair P/E ratio”.
The “fair P/E ratio” here is about 21 according to my calculations.
My investment style is a mixture of value/momentum investor. Based on the fundamental data (VALUE) and the share price performance of the last 52 weeks (MOMENTUM), the share is currently one of my TOP 25 shares. These are the stocks where I see the highest chances of strong price gains in the medium term (1-3 years). I also buy these stocks in my wikifolios, and at FollowMyMoney .
What do you think about the share?
Are you looking for support with investing money?
"Speculative investments are like a tennis match: the key is to concentrate fully on the next ace instead of getting annoyed about the last double fault." A. Gerstenberger
Disclaimer / Exclusion of liability
All content is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial market instruments. Naturally, I endeavor to present the facts to the best of my knowledge and belief, but they may still be partially or completely incorrect.
I therefore accept no liability whatsoever for investment decisions that you make on the basis of the information presented here.
Conflict of interest: At the time of publication, the author of this publication holds shares/securities in the stocks/companies discussed here and intends to sell them depending on the market situation and could benefit in particular from increased trading liquidity. This represents a concrete and clear conflict of interest.
can Plan Optik take advantage of the funding too ?